When the latest unemployment figures are announced Friday, the long-term jobless picture will reflect a change in the nature of jobs that started two decades ago, says UC Davis sociologist Vicki Smith.

"Cutbacks and downsizing in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks will be viewed as an inevitable outcome of the collective American effort to survive in turbulent and dangerous international times," Smith says, "But what we are witnessing actually is the continuation of 1980s and 1990s policies of placing more and more of the costs of employment and employee well-being on the shoulders of workers."

Her new book, "Crossing the Great Divide: Worker Risk and Opportunity in the New Economy," analyzes work and employment over the last 20 years. "We have witnessed the erosion of the American employment contract," Smith says. "Even in years when companies were creating jobs and hiring workers, the jobs were characterized by lack of security and unpredictability."

Those with cutting-edge skills and who are highly marketable more than likely will continue to find employment contracts in dynamic companies and industries. But for millions of others, the degree of uncertainty about their employment, their need to continually seek a job and their burden of absorbing the costs of an economy in decline will only increase, Smith concludes.